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Market Update - How to position in the tactical rally of Hong Kong stocks?

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Hang Seng Index
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Market Update - How to position in the tactical rally of Hong Kong stocks?

May 10, 2024

  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has rallied by 17 per cent since 19 April when the CSRC announced the five new measures to boost Hong Kong’s position as an international financial centre. Southbound inflows into Hong Kong spiked 97 per cent y-o-y to USD27.3bn YTD
  • Extreme undervaluation, underweight investor positions, and favourable tailwinds from the five new measures, the State Council’s “Nine-Point Guideline” and pro-growth policy signals from the April Politburo meeting have driven strong rotational buying of Hong Kong stocks
  • Bloomberg’s report on the proposal to exempt China onshore investors from paying the 20 per cent dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect has offered another strong boost to high dividend stocks listed in Hong Kong
  • The proposed addition of HKD-RMB dual counter stocks into southbound Stock Connect, together with the expansion of ETFs and the inclusion of REITs in the scheme will provide Hong Kong with an important channel to tap the RMB1trn offshore RMB liquidity pool. The five new measures are expected to narrow the A/H valuation premium from the current 37 per cent
  • The Hong Kong stock rally has been driven by multiple expansion and liquidity inflows rather than fundamental improvement. Conservative investor positioning and steep valuation discount may keep the technical momentum of the rally strong ahead of the Third Plenum in July
  • But we expect international portfolios flows to Hong Kong to remain tactical and volatile, especially going into H2 2024 with looming geopolitical risks surrounding US-China trade disputes and technology restrictions ahead of the US presidential election in November
  • From current levels, the HSI and CSI 300 offer limited upside potential of 1.4 per cent and 3.6 per cent to our end-2024 index targets of 19,230 and 3,800, respectively. We maintain our neutral view on Hong Kong and mainland China equities with preference for undervalued quality stocks in the service consumption (e-commerce, communication services) and high dividend paying SOEs
  • Riding on China’s accelerating corporate governance reform, we favour high-quality Chinese SOEs with strong cash balances, low leverage, and financial power to offer high dividends and share buybacks. We also like Chinese internet leaders with solid earnings and robust balance sheets that enable attractive share buybacks. In Hong Kong, we focus on selected oversold high-quality Hong Kong developers and REITs that pay attractive dividend yields

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