Our “Top 10 Ideas” publication posits ten of our highest conviction investment ideas. These are implementable ideas, refined from various opportunities we see around the globe and across a range of asset classes.

• Multi-asset portfolio for a resilient core: The multi-asset portfolio comfortably beat cash last year, and we expect it will do so again this year. Cash rates are set to offer diminishing returns as central banks continue to cut rates. A well-considered combination of asset classes can provide cash beating returns while dampening volatility, particularly given bonds and equities have typically been negatively correlated for some months
• Expect the unexpected: There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but it would be naïve to think that this year won’t have periods of turbulence. It’s hard to pinpoint a particular political shock and therefore markets can downplay political risk; but this year, the potential unpredictability of politics means that it makes sense to position portfolios so as to expect the unexpected
• Private equity eyes a vintage year: Cheaper valuations and a tailwind of falling rates have led to an increase in deal volumes. While some weaker managers are still constrained, there should be plenty of deals for cash-rich Private Equity managers. Investors are also more assured of a stable, positive growth ahead, which should further prompt dealmaking for what we expect to be a vintage year
• AI’s power hunger: AI systems have enormous energy demands, particularly during their development and operation. As AI models grow in size and capability, the energy demand can scale exponentially, creating a “hunger” for power. The knock-on impact on energy and data infrastructure - or even further innovation - to meet these power demands should write another chapter in the AI story
• Overweight Healthcare: An overweight to our portfolio from a sector that has revolutionised the treatment of obesity. The US healthcare sector is primed for strong growth in 2025, driven by breakthroughs in weight-loss drugs, pharmaceutical innovation, and advanced treatments. Additionally, technology-driven productivity enhancements are reshaping the industry
• Growth at a reasonable price: Exposure to AI and innovation is essential – but when the retail investor interest hits fever pitch, a prudent approach is warranted. This means keeping an eye on valuations too and selecting companies that can deliver on earnings. This doesn’t translate to avoiding businesses that have had strong momentum all through 2024, if we expect earnings to continue to deliver; but a more disciplined approach which can sidestep a market that has pockets of intense speculation
• Riding rate cuts in the UK: The turnaround in the rate expectations for the UK is remarkable. In less than three years, the market view on the UK rate cycle has been completely rewritten, pushing long-term expectation well above our expectations. Lingering inflation fears are overblown we believe, as we expect the economy to tick along at a steady pace this year. Against this backdrop, UK equities look cheap
• Credit Barbell strategy: Steady US growth next year warrants taking credit risk, but we see a better alternative to tight high yields spreads. A credit barbell strategy pairs higher grade investment bonds with private credit to net a higher expected return but without forecasting higher volatility
• The Trump trades: In our recent Investment Outlook, we stressed the need to keep an eye on the evolving policy landscape, especially in the US. The Trump presidency wants to bring swinging changes to tax, regulation and trade policy. Although this uncertainty means it’s hard to be too cute on the positioning for specific policies, we see key themes supporting a resilient USD, deregulation and continued reindustrialisation
• Asian equities with a home bias: Amid trade uncertainties with the US after Mr. Trump’s victory, we move our focus to domestic leaders in the Asian region. The region continues to see rising intra-regional trade and structural support from the burgeoning middle class, urbanisation, and digitalisation trends