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Market Update - FOMC stands still but dovish comments from Powell lift markets

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Market Update - FOMC stands still but dovish comments from Powell lift markets

May 2, 2024

  • For its sixth consecutive meeting (since July 2023), the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged. There were some changes to the FOMC statement at this meeting, with the most notable addition being, “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 per cent inflation objective”. The Fed also tweaked the language to say that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals “have moved toward better balance over the past year;” with the statement previously stating risks were “moving into better balance” (i.e., past vs. present tense)
  • But the meeting was actually seen as dovish. First, the Fed announced it will slow its pace of quantitative tightening beginning 1 June 2024, lowering the cap on the amount of Treasury securities rolling off the balance sheet by more than half, to USD25 billion each month from USD60 billion. This was earlier than some commentators thought and therefore seen as a mildly dovish measure
  • During the press conference, Powell was confident that inflation will return to 2 per cent as he stated, “Inflation, we will return inflation to 2 per cent”. For those asking about stagflation risks, he said he does not recognise either the stagnation part or the inflation part of that concern
  • We had been noting that the risk of delayed cuts was rising, and given the bumpy inflation path, we have revised our forecasts to only one 25bp rate cut in September 2024, while retaining our forecast for 75bp rate cuts in 2025. But the September cut is still earlier than what markets price in
  • Bonds rallied during the press conference, especially as Mr Powell much reduced any remaining concerns of a rate hike by stating the next move in his mind would be a cut. We believe the 10-year yield is now at the top of its range. The Treasury statement this week that it does not foresee any need to increase auction sizes should provide further respite on the supply front
  • As for equities, they remain supported by better-than-expected earnings, while more stability in the bond markets should also help
  • The USD weakened slightly on the Mr Powell’s dovish comments. But looking ahead, we continue to look for USD support if other central banks, most notably in Europe, cut rates ahead of September

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